The state of the polls as highlighted by our aggregating tool

Paris, 14/02/17

 

By 

Laurent Clavel, 

Head of Macroeconomic Research - AXA R&IS

et 

Ano Kuhanathan, 

Economist - AXA IM R&IS

The state of the polls as highlighted by our aggregating tool

 

 

Key points

  • As polls can offer more accurate views when aggregated, we have built a model which does just that and adjusts for past forecasting errors. We will update it on a regular basis on our website as more polls become available.
  • Importantly, this model is not projecting the evolution of candidates’ popularity. Rather, it takes stock of current polls and aggregates them, adjusting for their past accuracy, as well as sample size, to get better probability estimates of candidates’ chances of winning.
  • As of 14 February, this model gives the highest probability of winning to centrist Emmanuel Macron (51% probability) while conservative François Fillon remains a challenger (19% probability). Given current events, the volatility of polls is high and estimates may become more accurate closer to the elections.
  • Even though far-right Marine Le Pen has a low probability at this stage (23% as of 14 February), the monetary part of her program could raise concerns for financial markets. Some of the far-left candidates, so far with a low probability of winning, also have proposals which may raise concerns. Probable candidates for the next French President are likely to have a more neutral impact on markets, if not for a mild rally on French risk (spread tightening).