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124 insights found

11 October 2019

Changes

Markets have performed well this year despite all the uncertainties. A clearing of some of those is possible in the weeks ahead (possible I said, not probable). If that does happen, risk is likely to ...

27 September 2019

Default is Credit

The strong performance from credit markets this year receives limited attention. However, the reality is that default risk remains very low and credit risk premiums generally compensate investors for ...

20 September 2019

Carry Me Home

The market is trading like it believes the mid-cycle correction story rather than the impending recession narrative.

13 September 2019

Summer's Gone

The ECB has cemented low rates for a long time and it will also resume buying bonds. Can yields rise substantially in that environment? I suspect that bond yields remain low, even if they don’t plumb ...

06 September 2019

Get Your Coat

The short-lived divergence of global monetary policy in 2017-2018 gave way to the super gravitational pull of negative interest rates in 2019.

30 August 2019

Definitely, Maybe

Suddenly the Brexit stakes have been raised. Prime Minister Johnson has made a call that convincing the world that he is prepared to leave the EU without a deal and that he is prepared to take risks ...

23 August 2019

Price Action

Over the long run, total return in bond investing is driven by income. This year it has all been about capital appreciation. Bond prices have moved aggressively and this leaves the market subject to ...

15 August 2019

Doesn't Feel Good

Bond yields have plunged this summer. The cyclical slowdown and a wall of political worries has created a surge in demand for safe assets. Investors are trying to figure out what it all means.

19 July 2019

Holidays in the sun

President Trump appears to want much lower rates and a weaker dollar. Those views are political. If we were to get them, then US inflation risk premiums could rise.