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12 August 2019

Italian and Argentinian political developments, while UK Q2 GDP is lower than expected

Last week Lega leader Matteo Salvini submitted a no-confidence motion, following a contentious Senate vote on the construction of a high-speed rail link between France and Italy.

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07 August 2019

Trump trade policy dominates, Fed announces rate cut, BoE position unchanged

It is with a certain resignation that we observe US President Donald Trump once again plunging the US into heightening trade tensions with China.

29 July 2019

ECB determined but undecided while Fed rate decision will dominate and UK PM hardens Brexit stance

The introductory statement of last week’s ECB meeting was dovish on several fronts. The ECB introduced an easing bias in its forward guidance of “rates at present or lower levels”, and emphasised its ...

22 July 2019

ECB to signal easing bias, US GDP growth to soften ahead of rate cut, UK will gain new Prime Minister

European Central Bank (ECB) back to easing bias. On Thursday, we expect the ECB to remain on hold and to signal its intention to cut the deposit rate in September by 10 basis points (bps) - with the ...

16 July 2019

US economic data underlines case for rate cut, China recovery not yet on solid footing

Last week was an important one for US monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave testimony to Congress where he effectively endorsed market expectations for an easing in monetary polic ...

08 July 2019

US employment data rebounds, Greece hits the polls while trade tensions emerge between Japan and South Korea

Last week’s US employment report eased concerns over a potentially imminent interruption to jobs’ growth, with June’s headline 224,000 expansion, unwinding May’s disappointing numbers.

01 July 2019

US/China trade tensions ease; focus moves to Fed policy outlook and EU leadership

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held meetings on the fringes of the G20 meeting in Osaka this weekend.

24 June 2019

G20 US/China talks – a potential juncture for the global economy

Last week President Donald Trump made an unprecedented intervention, following the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting, where he accused it of currency manipulation, as the value of the d ...

17 June 2019

Central banks set to lead the week, as the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan prepare to deliver their latest announcements

Last week’s US retail sales and consumer confidence releases complicated the picture for the Fed.