CIO Views: Upbeat bond opportunities, European investors’ optimism and China’s new five-year plan
KEY INVESTMENT THEMES
Rising active opportunities in fixed income
The bond outlook remains positive and more monetary easing is expected in 2026. Passive carry-based strategies are one option, but choices for active strategies should be plentiful given yield curves’ potential evolution, cross-market spreads and credit premiums. Short-dated government bond yields reflect policy expectations, but prevailing risks may create volatility in longer-dated bonds. Curves have steepened and could extend given fiscal policy and heavy government bond issuance. Interestingly, longer duration bonds have outperformed in 2025, breaking a four-year run of underperformance. Active management of duration and exploiting yield differences will be key to delivering performance. As curves steepen, adding duration will be more enticing. A narrowing of the gap between dollar, sterling and euro interest rates will be another opportunity to boost returns. Credit spreads remain tight, but volatility is likely to increase as concerns about broader credit trends emerge. Active investors should be able to add credit risk exposure at better levels than today’s during likely periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.
European investor optimism
European investors have been buying equities at a steady pace; between January and August fund inflows reached €164bn, outpacing 2024’s €144bn total, according to industry data. Notably, European investors’ risk appetite was not affected by US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day: equity inflows exceeded €15bn in April, while bonds endured almost €21bn in outflows. However, while inflows are on track to match 2024’s €276bn there has likely been a shift away from government bonds to credit. Unsurprisingly, the ICE Bank of America Euro Corporate index is on track to outperform the Euro Government Bond index by almost 200 basis points. Furthermore, multi-asset strategies have hit almost €40bn of inflows after two consecutive years of outflows. A risk-on tilt to European portfolios has rewarded investors – year to date a standard 60/40 strategy of government bonds and Stoxx 600 equities delivered a total return of some 7.4%. By comparison, the same allocation would have generated 4.6% for 2024 as a whole.
China: Leaning into what works
China’s Fourth Plenum concluded on 23 October, with the communiqué providing
initial guidance for the 15th Five-Year Plan. While committing 2035 objectives,
policymakers face ongoing structural imbalances, cyclical headwinds, and uncertain
geopolitical conditions. Weak private sector and consumer confidence, along with
demand-supply imbalances, are becoming an increasing challenge. Reviving domestic
demand is key for sustained long-term growth, however redirecting China toward
higher levels of domestic consumption will take time. For now, the strategy is to rely on
investment and trade-led growth, emphasising the development of a modern
industrial system and technological self-sufficiency. This approach is both strategic and
pragmatic, rooted in the thinking that investment will create new jobs, drive income
growth, and, by extension, boost demand. Yet, future macroeconomic and geopolitical
developments, along with policy implementation, will be critical - especially given
China's need to consume more of what it produces. Weakness in producer prices spans
from overcapacity and affects export prices, raising the risk of exported deflation,
ultimately challenging other manufacturing economies’ growth.
Asset Class Summary Views
Views expressed reflect CIO team expectations on asset class returns and risks. Traffic lights indicate expected return over a three-to-six-month period relative to long-term observed trends.
| Positive | Neutral | Negative |
|---|
CIO team opinions draw on AXA IM investment team views and are not intended as asset allocation advice.
Rates | Lower US and UK interest rates priced in - long-end well anchored for now | |
|---|---|---|
US Treasuries | Clearer path for Federal Reserve is allowing for lower yields but inflation needs to be watched | |
Euro – Core Govt. | Yields expected to be stable with European Central Bank on hold until New Year | |
Euro – Govt Spread | Income opportunities likely to persist across Spanish, Italian and Portuguese bonds | |
UK Gilts | Sentiment improving around the November Budget and Bank of England rate cuts | |
JGBs | Market awaits new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s policies, central bank on hold for now | |
Inflation | Short-duration inflation bonds still preferred as US inflation remains around 3.0% |
Credit | Challenges to sentiment amid continued spread tightness | |
|---|---|---|
USD Investment Grade | Fundamentals continue to be supportive but valuations less so | |
Euro Investment Grade | Stable short rates suggest longer duration credit for higher income | |
GBP Investment Grade | Credible budget would help longer duration yields move potentially below 5% | |
USD High Yield | Macro and corporate news remain supportive despite some modest credit concerns | |
Euro High Yield | Recent rise in spreads and yields relative to investment grade creates income opportunities | |
EM Hard Currency | Macro backdrop and idiosyncratic stories sustain return opportunities |
Equities | Resilient global economy and technology spend support further positive returns | |
|---|---|---|
US | Strong third quarter earnings support positive momentum despite valuations | |
Europe | Bullish case for Europe continues to build but exporters face tough price competition | |
UK | Lower rates and more stable fiscal outlook should underpin value opportunities | |
Japan | Markets betting on positive impact from Takaichi to sustain solid equity performance | |
China | Strive for technological self-sufficiency driving stock returns despite weak macro backdrop | |
Investment Themes* | Long-term positive on artificial intelligence and carbon transition strategies |
*AXA Investment Managers has identified several themes, supported by megatrends, that companies are tapping into which we believe are best placed to navigate the evolving global economy: Automation & Digitalisation, Consumer Trends & Longevity, the Energy Transition as well as Biodiversity & Natural Capital
Data source: Bloomberg
Disclaimer
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