Following a highly challenging year, our expectation for 2023 and 2024 is to finally see inflation retreat against a backdrop of global growth slowing to its softest – barring the pandemic – since 2009. But while we anticipate a challenging road ahead, we expect a slow recovery emerging in 2024.
The Chief Economist view
The clouds around the inflation peak
The CIO view
Positive but tempered return expectations
What should investors expect in 2023?
There were few places to hide in 2022. The backdrop ultimately forced a revaluation of fixed income and equity assets. However fixed income investors stand to benefit most from the peak in inflation and policy rates, but equity markets while vulnerable, have the potential to rebound. We look at what 2023 could mean for both institutional and retail investors.
The current environment requires thoughtful investment strategies.
The US economy looks like it’s heading for recession in early 2023, although we expect it will be mild.
The macroeconomic environment, energy crisis and tighter monetary policy are likely to push the bloc into recession.
China’s economic outlook is dependent on how it exits its ‘zero-COVID’ policy and reopens its economy.
Inflation should begin to gradually retrace in 2023 but political developments remain important.
Japan’s economy looks set to remain robust, with growth supported by the reopening of the economy .
Emerging markets outlook
We expect GDP growth in emerging markets (ex.- China) to decelerate sharply then slowly improve in the second half of 2023.
Our experts and investment teams outline their key convictionsVisit the Investment Institute