Investment Institute
Monthly Market Update

October Global Macro Monthly -Geopolitics and yield add to macro uncertainty


Key points

  • Terrorist attacks in Israel and retaliation in Gaza has created the threat of a humanitarian crisis, with risks of regional conflict escalation. Market reaction has been cautious to date, but risks are obvious.
  • Meanwhile global bond yields continue to rise, driven by a rise in US Treasuries. Technical features appear to be compounding this rise, including the re-emergence of term premium as quantitative tightening continues.
  • Yet macro drivers of yields are also compelling, particularly in the US where consumer resilience and solid investment has lifted future interest rate expectations.
  • China posted stronger Q3 GDP growth, with consumer activity recovering. This likely secures this year’s growth target, yet property remains a risk and ongoing momentum next year requires more stimulus.
  • Eurozone growth prospects remain more stagnant, but fiscal concerns dominate as the budget process and higher yields challenge certain governments.

Related documents

    Disclaimer

    This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.

    It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date.

    All information in this document is established on data made public by official providers of economic and market statistics. AXA Investment Managers disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. All exhibits included in this document, unless stated otherwise, are as of the publication date of this document.

    Furthermore, due to the subjective nature of these opinions and analysis, these data, projections, forecasts, anticipations, hypothesis, etc. are not necessary used or followed by AXA IM’s portfolio management teams or its affiliates, who may act based on their own opinions. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part is, unless otherwise authorised by AXA IM, prohibited.

    Back to top
    Are you a Professional Investor ?

    This website is available in English only and directed at professional, institutional or qualified investors. It is not suitable for retail investors. As such, some of the funds, products and services described on this website are not available for retail investors under the MiFID II (Directive 2014/65/UE). By pressing accept you confirm that you are a professional investor and agree to AXA Investment Managers' Legal Information and Terms of Use.